Electioneering 102: A Lesson From Green Party of Canada
The federal election in Canada concluded on 2008.10.14. The incumbent party won another mandate. There are a lot of interesting content in this election to fill the media. However, for the purpose of Electioneering, this story may not make the cut to the paper, let alone to the headline. This case study lesson is experienced by the Leader of Green Party of Canada. This biggest contribution of this race is: how to choose a spot to run. The most applicable lesson of this is still city councilor.
Green Party of Canada has been increasing its vote share ever since the turn of the millennium. In 2006, they got 4.48% of the votes and no seats in the parliament. After that election, the Leader of the party then did not run in the leadership race again. It then became an open race and Elizabeth May won the leadership. She was an Executive Director of Sierra Club Canada, with government bureaucrat experience, a law degree and a recipient of Order of Canada. She ran a by-election earlier, against all parties and got the second largest votes in that race.
Green Party has long held the position that they are unable to win a seat because they are excluded from the televised debates. This election proves that a televised debate did not help.
May was looking for an epic race. This could have been the first sign of trouble. An election is not about making a statement. Election is about finding the most representative will of the people. By being the leader and possibly the first elected officer of a party, May’s election is more important than any other candidate. There is a lot of media attention, political resources, volunteer resources, and money involved in a leader’s race. Therefore, it is only prudent to maximum the vote, not to dramatize an epic.
If you are running in a city councilor race (or county board, school board, etc), you run to win. Any other objective is mischievous, and misleading the voters. It is true that people run elections for all kinds of reasons, some of them noble too. However, it is only when you aim to win would you be serving your voters, be honest to your voters, donors, volunteers and other kinds of supporters. Furthermore, if you do not run to win, your result tends to sink, even if you got some special interest groups’ backing because your true primary motives usually affect your plan, execution and result. For instance, since your real motive is a geography A, you divert more resources to that area instead. However, that area may be a contestable area. if the votes are already secured, no need to get vote there. However, you are doing it there to serve your personal interests. So, your volunteer hours are lost, your lawn signs are wasted. Alternatively, you may be interested at a specific donor group. Similarly you wasted your campaign.
Liberal party delivered their promise not to contest against May in order to maximize her chances to a seat, wherever her choosing. This promise is also unlikely to be offered in the next election since the leader of Liberal party is also in his trouble. And no one should plan a race with the expectation that this offer will be made twice anyway.
May placed this epic over at Central Nova, where the incumbent runs a dynasty there: 2 generations of incumbent, close to 10 elections. This is where the second problem is. One should contest in a place to win, not a place to dramatize. By being the leader, she can choose any leader she wanted. She should have picked a riding where
1) The Liberal candidate is not the incumbent, however strong enough that the votes actually matter in her race;
2) The Green votes are decent, say above the 2006’s record of 4.48% votes;
3) Incumbent votes are actually weak; below 50% is minimum requirement. The lower the better.
4) Since there are 3 major parties contesting in every riding in Canada, an ideal riding is where all three parties split their votes, i.e. around 30% each. Of course this is unrealistic.
Election is a contest of organization, stamina of the salesman (candidate), branding (party), money (fundraising) and product (platform). A leader got the luxury of choosing a riding, which most people cannot afford the infrastructure investment to do. Building up a local political network to support is not easy. However, this is fairly accomplishable if you were interested at a city race. Changing a house from this corner of the town to that corner is not too difficult. What is the ideal demographic for you? Ethnic group? Income class? Age group? Occupation? Family status?
If she spent 30 minutes to look around the >300 ridings in Canada, she maybe able to see that there are multiple ridings where Liberal is the incumbent, however with >25% of votes; Green votes are above 5%, and the incumbent got votes around mid 30%.
With 30 minutes of your time, you can see that Welland is one such riding where the incumbent is Conservative. Vancouver Kingsway is another one, where the incumbent is NDP. There are probably others. These 2 may not deliver an ideal environment for victory. However, the point is there are potential sites to choose from.
If May knew that it wasn’t going to be a victory, then dramatizing an epic is not a bad option. However, in your case, don’t run. An election is costly not only to you, but also to your supporters in forms other than money.
If you plan to remove a low performing incumbent, then get all the prospective candidates together. Gamble all resources in only one person. So, all your prospective candidates may want to have a quasi primary to determine who will have the best shot.
Hurricanes, P&C Insurance and Property Taxes
Most natural disasters have short time durations with a long recovery period, like Katrina and Tsunami. What we have now is something different: climate change gives us a long disaster duration with a long recovery period. Climate change gives us multiple disasters over a long period of time.
What companies get affected by storms and hurricanes? Property insurance companies. All state governments want to regulate property insurance heavily because this retail financial product touches a lot of voters. State governments’ interest in this industry is actually pricing. If the pricing is heavily regulated, then it is the expense that the companies have to control in order to make profit. The biggest expense for property and casualty insurance companies is the managing the claims. Big property insurance companies are AllState (NYSE: ALL), Travellers (NYSE: TRV), Progressive (NYSE PGR), ACE (NYSE: AEX).
For that reason, P&C insurance companies actually have more incentive in participating climate mitigation financial instruments than big financial houses like Merrill or Goldman. As well, they have more at stake simply because they have less control over their revenue and absolutely no control over their payout. Finding a climate change solution is more important to them than to many other industries. The work around solution is to avoid the a high payout area. But in the age of climate change, which place is not affected? It is only a question of which natural disaster, be it drought, flood, hurricane, wild fires…
Another aspect of climate change is on infrastructure. More and more infrastructure will require more repairs. This will be a financial burden on local governments, which translates to state income tax and property tax.
However the solution is global, not local. This is where the political risk is. Risk mitigation rests among national governments. However, little is done. Financial burden is placed on consumers and local governments. However, they have very tools available to them. Since financial impact is placed at a local level, that is why it is hardly a national election topic when it is actually a topic of heavy financial substance.
Increasing population density is one tool available since it minimizes the exposure to infrastructure. Zoning is only one way to make it happen. Property tax is another way. In fact, a more effective way. Change the composition of tax between property and land will create more incentive for building higher density areas. Decrease the proportion of tax on property and increase the proportion of tax on land will naturally encourage builders to create high density communities.
What Is Your Company’s Plan B?
Myanmar has finally accepted foreign experts to enter its soil, although only among its neighbors, the ASEAN countries. Its death toll is above 100k now, half of 2004 Tsunami. Myanmar is likely to miss the spring farming seasons, which will creates a second disaster: famine.
China started its 3-day mourning on the 19th. Flood is now another up and coming disaster. Floods may damage railroad connecting Vietnam and transportation network to Myanmar. This area has some research and development sites, including nuclear research facilities. A destruction of the facilities does not present as much damage as the removal of the research community.
135 dams/reservoirs are in danger, as in having cracks or not functional. 18 are in danger of collapse.
Equipments can be replaced. No matter how expensive the equipments are, a vendor can still produce another one. However, if the research personnel are displaced (the better scenario) to other institutions, then the knowledge goes with it as well. Physical capital is no longer the important critical factor to a modern economy. The most important asset in a knowledge economy is community. The value of research personnel community is not the knowledge stored in the brains of their individual brains. If that were the case, one would just need to buy more disk space to store the knowledge. A research community is facilitated by a group of research personnel where they interact with each other while having a chat off work, in the corridor, or even a conversation with colleagues who have only a peripheral relevance to their research project. Once a community is disintegrated, it cannot be re-builded.
A good example is the Canadian fighter jet research community. Canada spent a lot of resources to research an ideal fighter jet suitable for the northern climate (metal fatigue, engine ignition, everything). Given the strategic value Canada was during the Cold War to defend the Artic, a fighter jet designed for the Artic was invaluable. However, US were unwilling to place a sizable order to make the production financially viable. Canada’s order alone could not have made last either. So, all the research personnel had to find their new employers. Some people went to NASA. Some people went to civilian aerospace industry. However, the asset (being this research community) was forever gone.
The same could be said about any company, not only technology companies. Say financial industry. Each company is more experienced in a specific kind of product; say yours is more experienced in smokers’ life insurance products or self-employed mortgage applications. A spreadsheet (or database) can only go so far. The knowledge / experience is among the seasoned employees and their collective ability to train to the others. This is the same reason why big companies like GE would send their management staff across departments to get a better exposure. GE continues their management culture, and sustains their P/E ratio, through this kind of cross department experience. That contributes a great part of its asset.
Does your company have a Plan B to continue a critical part of your business? In case of unforeseeable event, be it natural disaster or political risk event, does your company have a Plan B to protect your critical asset?






